Story of a breakup

Some fifteen years after the break up of the former Yugoslavia, U.S. intelligence reports predicting said break up are now becoming de-clasified.

The full scale effect of such a break up is not predicted, but violence & intercommunal warfare is:

A full-scale, interrepublic war is unlikely, but serious intercommunal
conflicts will accompany the breakup and will continue afterward," the
declassified document filed by the National Intelligence on October 18,
1990, said. "The violence will be intractable and bitter."

The full article, can be found here.